Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mark AndrewsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Browns vs. Ravens
Right now, Mark Andrews’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (-110) after it opened @ 52.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Baltimore Ravens will be forced to start backup quarterback Tyler Huntley in this week’s game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Ravens are a 3-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects Mark Andrews to notch 7.1 targets in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile among TEs.
- Mark Andrews’s 69.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 61.7.
- The Baltimore Ravens O-line profiles as the 6th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the 4th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 49.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 32.9 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 6th-least in football.
- Mark Andrews has notched many fewer receiving yards per game (59.0) this year than he did last year (82.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
51
Receiving Yards
51
Receiving Yards
