NFL Circa Millions Picks for Week 3
Michael Cohen
Geno SmithPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Seahawks vs. Panthers
Right now, Geno Smith’s passing yards prop is set at 259.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 259.5 (-114) after it opened @ 260.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 64.1% pass rate.
- Geno Smith has been among the best passers in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 267.0 yards per game while ranking in the 83rd percentile.
- Geno Smith’s throwing accuracy has been refined this year, with his Completion% rising from 68.8% to 72.2%.
- Geno Smith’s pass-game effectiveness has gotten better this season, compiling 8.16 yards-per-target compared to just 7.06 figure last season.
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 5th-highest level in football against the Carolina Panthers defense this year (74.2%).
Cons
- The Seahawks are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Seattle Seahawks have run the 5th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 54.2 plays per game.
- The Carolina Panthers pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency this year, surrendering 7.39 yards-per-target: the 10th-least in the league.
- The Carolina Panthers defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.13 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
264
Passing Yards
264
Passing Yards
