Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Chris MooreReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Cowboys vs. Texans
Right now, Chris Moore’s receiving yards prop is set at 31.5 yards (-110/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 31.5 (-115) after it opened @ 34.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The Texans are a huge 17.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 69.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 136.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Chris Moore has been among the top wideouts in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging an impressive 7.19 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 95th percentile.
Cons
- The Houston Texans have called the 4th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 54.0 plays per game.
- The Houston Texans O-line ranks as the worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
- The Dallas Cowboys defense has surrendered the 4th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 133.0) vs. wide receivers this year.
- The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has surrendered the 8th-lowest Completion% in football (64%) vs. WRs this year (64.0%).
- The Dallas Cowboys linebackers profile as the 3rd-best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
50
Receiving Yards
50
Receiving Yards
