Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Noah FantReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Seahawks vs. Panthers
Right now, Noah Fant’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 29.5 (-125) after it opened @ 30.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 64.1% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects Noah Fant to garner 4.1 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 75th percentile among TEs.
- Noah Fant has been among the most reliable receivers in the NFL among tight ends, completing a terrific 78.7% of passes thrown his way this year, grading out in the 76th percentile.
- Noah Fant’s skills in grinding out extra yardage have been refined this season, accumulating 6.73 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to just 4.10 figure last season.
- The Carolina Panthers safeties project as the 8th-worst collection of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.
Cons
- The Seahawks are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Seattle Seahawks have run the 5th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 54.2 plays per game.
- Noah Fant has been a much smaller piece of his team’s pass game this season (12.4% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (18.5%).
- The Carolina Panthers defense has allowed the 5th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 38.0) vs. tight ends this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
29
Receiving Yards
29
Receiving Yards
