World Cup Betting Breakdown (Saturday 12/10)

We have the second day of quarterfinal matches at the 2022 World Cup. We had a wild day of games Friday with Croatia taking down the then-favorites Brazil in penalty kicks. The game was scoreless through regulation and both teams scored in extra time, with Croatia forcing penalty kicks with just a few minutes left. The Netherlands and Argentina game is in action as I write this breakdown. Four teams will compete Saturday to try and join Friday’s winners in the semifinals.

Game 1 Morocco vs. Portugal

Morocco is the last African team left in the competition and have come through as one of the dark horses of the tournament. They will have confidence that they can upset this Portugal squad. They downed Spain in penalty kicks after a scoreless 120 minutes. Their underlying numbers throughout the tournament have been stellar defensively, and they have taken advantage of their opportunities to score.

Portugal demolished Switzerland 6-1 in their quarterfinal game. They put on a clinic in their attacking third, and the Swiss could not generate much going forward. The big news out of this game was the benching of Cristiano Ronaldo. His replacement Goncalo Ramos scored a hat trick in his place, and it will be interesting to see who draws the start on Saturday.

Portugal is favored at -145 on the 3-way line at FanDuel Sportsbook. Morocco is +470 with the draw sitting at +260. Portugal is -370 to advance, while Morocco is +260. The goal total over/under is 2.25.

Morocco vs. Portugal Bets

• Halftime draw (+105, FanDuel Sportsbook). Both teams will come out conservatively like we normally see early in big games. The team who might be on the front foot (Portugal) will be going against one of the best defenses in the entire tournament, so I think a 0-0 halftime result is a strong bet.
• Morocco draw no bet (+290, FanDuel Sportsbook). This is a 0.5u play in hopes that Morocco can keep the dream alive and continue on to the semis. I think their defense is up to the task if they can find a way to score.
• Youssef En-Nesyri o1.5 shots (-117, BetRivers). En-Nesyri has not been shooting a lot, but if Morocco gets down early, they will need him to be firing away.

Game 2 England vs. France

For many, this is the marquee fixture of the quarterfinals. Two football giants — and two of the more talented and recognizable teams left in the tournament — fight for their spot in the semifinals. This could be a match for the ages.

After not playing so well in the early phase of the game, England rolled past Senegal 3-0. They have not lost a game in Qatar yet, with their worst result being a 0-0 draw to the United States. They have been a much more aggressive team going up the pitch than we were all thinking beforehand with 12 goals scored so far. They have three clean sheets in the tournament, but they will be challenged against a strong French team.

France took care of Poland 3-1 in their Round of 16 match. It was not much of a contest as France controlled the game the whole way. They look primed to compete for the title and repeat as World Cup winners. They are the Vegas favorites to win now with Brazil out of the tournament. They might have to be a little more on the defensive end in this game if England continues to press high. They can counter up the left with Mbappe, but England will have a healthy Kyle Walker now to try and shut him down.

France is -122 to advance with England not far off at +100. England is +195 on the 3-way line with France at +145 and the draw available at +220.

England vs. France Bets

• Over 2.5 goals (+117, BetRivers). Both teams have world class attackers, so I’ll take the plus odds on three or more goals in this game.
• Ousmane Dembele AGS (+410, FanDuel Sportsbook). Dembele is going to be overlooked in this game. All eyes will be on Mbappe on the opposite side, and he gets to attack Luke Shaw who is not on the field for his defensive prowess. 0.5u wager.
• Ousmane Dembele 1 SOG (-110, DraftKings Sportsbook). See above.
• Jude Bellingham 2 shots (+150, DraftKings Sportsbook). Bellingham could find a way to get higher up the pitch in this game if England continue to press high. He will be shooting more if France pull ahead early, too.