Week 14 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Najee Harris from EV Insight

Najee HarrisRushing Yards

Right now, Najee Harris’s rushing yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (+106/-145).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 53.5 (-145) after it opened @ 58.5 (-115).

Pros

The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 6th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 61.7 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to accumulate 13.4 carries in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 78th percentile among RBs.
Najee Harris has averaged 54.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest marks in football among running backs (77th percentile).
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in football). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 123.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to be a much smaller part of his offense’s run game this week (49.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (60.0% in games he has played).
Najee Harris’s running efficiency (3.72 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football this year (15th percentile among RBs).
Opposing teams have run for the 3rd-least yards in the NFL (just 83 per game) against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.
The Baltimore Ravens defensive tackles project as the 7th-best collection of DTs in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.

Projection

THE BLITZ
56
Rushing Yards