Randle Roundup: NBA Betting Trends of the Week (12/9)

The hottest teams in the NBA?

The Boston Celtics and New Orleans Pelicans.

Both sit atop their respective conferences. and both have gone 8-2 over their last 10 games. They are also two of only five NBA teams with winning records on the road. On the opposite side, the Magic and Spurs have seen their early-season success plummet, with both teams posting just 1-9 records in their last 10 contests.

As far as the most polarizing clubs, I present the Dallas Mavericks and Golden State Warriors. The Mavericks are 10-3 at home but just 3-8 on the road. Dallas also is just 3-7-1 ATS when facing teams below .500. The Warriors have continued their inexplicable road struggles, with a mirror image record of 11-2 and 2-11 in home vs. road contests. Golden State is now just 6-4 in their last 10 matchups but did find a road cover (+5.5) at Utah in a 124-123 loss Wednesday night.

Here are a few betting nuggets from seven more NBA teams as you consider your side, total and prop bets for the upcoming week.

Philadelphia 76ers

James Harden posted 21 points, four rebounds and seven assists in his Monday return at Houston. The 76ers lost 132-123 in double overtime, but Harden’s 38 minutes were certainly a positive step forward. Harden has been out since Nov. 3 with a foot injury but provided an offensive boost for a Philadelphia team that is still missing Tyrese Maxey (fractured foot). Philadelphia is just 8-7 in their last 15 games and have remained competitive with a much-improved defense that now ranks second in fewest points allowed per game (107.6). Before you continue to invest in the Under on 76ers game, consider they have allowed 120.7 PPG in their last three matchups, including just 108 points in regulation to a Houston team that ranks just 22nd in points per game.
The return of Harden could signal the end of an amazing scoring run by Tobias Harris. In the month of November, Harris posted 18.3 PPG on exactly five more field goal attempts per game. He posted 23 or more points in five of his last six games, despite averaging just 16.9 PPG on the season. After a brutal month in 3P efficiency (31.7%, 5.0 3PA per game), Harris has, in fact, been scalding from deep the past two nights. He has shot a combined 12 of 14 (85.7%) from deep in two road games at Memphis and Houston.

Phoenix Suns

While the Suns are just 0.5 game behind New Orleans for the best record in the Western Conference, they are only 3-5 ATS in their last eight games. Phoenix will play the Pelicans three times in their next five games and have struggled defensively against top teams. The Suns have allowed 122 or more points in three of the team’s last four contests.
Point guard Chris Paul returned from a heel injury Wednesday, posting a moderate 4/4/4 line in the blowout loss at Boston. In the eight games prior to his injury, Paul had been scorching hot in assists, averaging over 11 per game.
Paul will need to keep center Deandre Ayton involved, especially after averaging 17.6 PPG and 10.4 RPG in November. Excluding the blowout to Boston, Ayton had posted 17 or more points in six of the prior seven games.

Portland Trail Blazers

Rookie Shaedon Sharpe has exceeded expectations in his rookie season, after not playing at the collegiate level. Sharpe shot 36.8% from 3P range in November and has tallied at least three rebounds and one steal in each of the past three contests. He needs to improve defensively but has solidified his nightly role on a tight eight-man rotation for Portland.
It’s hard not to be impressed by 23-year-old Portland guard Anfernee Simons. For the first time this season, Simons failed to reach double-digits scoring, shooting only 3 of 12 from deep with just six points in the Trail Blazers loss to Portland Thursday night. In the 17 games prior, Simons has reached 20 more points 15 times, and 30 or more points five times.
Forward Jerami Grant has also settled in with Portland, increasing his scoring average in each of the first three months. Grant has improved from 15.7 PPG, 24.9 PPG to 26.3 PPG in three contests in December. This has not been affected by the recent return of Damian Lillard, who missed two weeks with a calf injury. The normally reliable 3P shooter has struggled this month, hitting just 31.8% of his attempts from deep, but has compensated by blistering the free-throw nets at an 88% rate.

Sacramento Kings

The Kings continue to surprise, sitting fifth in the Western Conference at a respectable 13-10 record. A poor fourth quarter at Milwaukee on Wednesday night dropped Sacramento to 7-4 ATS in road matchups, but the Kings have stayed competitive with a superbly efficient offense. Sacramento ranks second overall in schedule-adjusted offense, trailing only the Celtics.
After a slow start to the 2022-2023 season, forward Domantas Sabonis has started to maximize his nightly production. Sabonis has scored 11 or more points in 16 of his last 17 games, has grabbed 10-plus rebounds in seven of nine, and has seven or more assists in seven of nine. He has found efficiency from the field as well, scoring at a mind-boggling 80.8% rate his last three contests, while shooting 92.3% from the charity stripe.

San Antonio Spurs

After a 5-2 start, San Antonio now resides at the bottom of the Western Conference standings, tied with Houston.
We always knew someone would have production value on this team, and it appears that has become Keldon Johnson. The 23-year-old forward has averaged 24.7 PPG over his last three contests, with a robust 22.3 shot attempts per night.
Lost in the Keldon Johnson explosion has been the Tre Jones consistency. Jones has raised his field goal percentage to 50% in the three December games, while averaging a career-best 15 PPG. Jones is consistently averaging 32 MPG and continues to be an integral part of the Johnson-Devin Vassell-Jones trio. Despite losing 16 of their last 18 matchups, Jones is still a player to target on nightly scoring props.

Toronto Raptors

Fred VanVleet’s Instagram purge will hopefully coincide with a production increase. His 16.8 PPG average is his lowest since 2018-2019, and his 36% FG mark is the worst since his rookie season (2016-2017). VanVleet’s 3P accuracy appeared to turn a corner at the start of November, when he went 18 of 39 (46.1%) over a three-game span. However, he has plummeted to just 25% (21 of 82) over the past 10 contests.
Pascal Siakam continues to be undervalued by the NBA community, as he is posting 26 PPG, 8.3 RPG, and 7.0 APG in four matchups this month. Siakam is posting career-highs in points, rebounds and assists per game, and has hit at least one 3P in six consecutive matchups.

Utah Jazz

Utah has recovered from a rough run of eight losses in 10 games and has now won three of their last four, including a one-point win over Golden State.
With all the roster changes, I expected better nightly production from Jordan Clarkson. His 16.5 PPG and 40.4% FG in October were massively disappointing. In the last 19 games, Clarkson has posted 21 PPG, and is now closer to 34 minutes per contest.
Point guard Mike Conley has been out since Nov. 19 with a left knee strain, and the Jazz have greatly missed his 7.9 assists per night. His impending return should mean a boost for leading-scorer Lauri Markkanen, who tallied a season-high 38 points in the last full game Conley played. Markkanen has been scorching hot from 3P range as well, hitting 20 of his last 33 attempts for an insane 61% rate. Conley is officially available to play.

Washington Wizards

A healthy and motivated Kristaps Porzingis is dangerous. While some will attribute it to new facial hair, his 22.1 PPG average is the second-highest of his career. He has posted 27 or more points in five of his last six games, including an insane 19 rebounds against Brooklyn Nov. 30. Volume is his friend, as Porzingis has averaged over 18 FGA per game in Washington’s last five matchups. He has also surprisingly increased his assists, tallying three or more in every game this month. I am targeting Porzingis assists props until the market readjusts.
How important is Rui Hachimura to the Wizards? In the nine games before his bone bruise, the Wizards were 6-3, with wins over Dallas, Utah, Memphis and Miami.