Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
CeeDee LambReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Cowboys vs. Texans
Right now, CeeDee Lamb’s receiving yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 69.5 (-110) after it opened @ 71.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 136.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects CeeDee Lamb to total 8.9 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 91st percentile among wideouts.
- CeeDee Lamb has accrued many more air yards this year (101.0 per game) than he did last year (79.0 per game).
- CeeDee Lamb has put up quite a few more receiving yards per game (80.0) this year than he did last year (64.0).
Cons
- The Cowboys are a massive 17.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 51.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 32.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense this year: least in the NFL.
- The Houston Texans defense has allowed the 7th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 137.0) to WRs this year.
- The Houston Texans pass defense has conceded the 4th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.7%) versus wide receivers this year (62.7%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
84
Receiving Yards
84
Receiving Yards
