Week 14 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Jeff Wilson from EV Insight

Jeff WilsonRushing Yards

Right now, Jeff Wilson’s rushing yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-139/+102).

The public has bet the OVER up to 44.5 (-139) after it opened @ 40.5 (-115).

Pros

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Jeffery Wilson has been a more important option in his offense’s running game this season (48.2% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (27.9%).
The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 9th-best in football this year at blocking for rushers.
Jeffery Wilson has averaged 59.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the largest figures in the league among RBs (82nd percentile).
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has had the worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, allowing 5.71 yards-per-carry.

Cons

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.6% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 7th-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 37.1% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 54.7 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Miami Dolphins have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 15.6% of the time since the start of last season (6th-least in the league), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
45
Rushing Yards