WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Dalvin CookRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Lions vs. Vikings
Right now, Dalvin Cook’s rushing yards prop is set at 73.5 yards (-125/+100).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 73.5 (+100) after it opened @ 75.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Dalvin Cook to accumulate 16.8 carries this week, on average, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among running backs.
- Dalvin Cook has garnered 75.6% of his offense’s carries this year, ranking in the 97th percentile among running backs.
- Dalvin Cook has been among the leading RBs in football at generating extra running yardage, averaging a stellar 3.36 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 83rd percentile.
- The Detroit Lions defense owns the 2nd-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, surrendering 5.37 yards-per-carry.
Cons
- The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.8% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 4th-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 34.5% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Dalvin Cook has rushed for quite a few less yards per game (76.0) this year than he did last year (89.0).
- The Minnesota Vikings have gone up against a stacked the box on 20.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
75
Rushing Yards
75
Rushing Yards
