Week 14 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Dalvin Cook from EV Insight

Dalvin CookRushing Yards

Right now, Dalvin Cook’s rushing yards prop is set at 73.5 yards (-125/+100).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 73.5 (+100) after it opened @ 75.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Dalvin Cook to accumulate 16.8 carries this week, on average, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among running backs.
Dalvin Cook has garnered 75.6% of his offense’s carries this year, ranking in the 97th percentile among running backs.
Dalvin Cook has been among the leading RBs in football at generating extra running yardage, averaging a stellar 3.36 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 83rd percentile.
The Detroit Lions defense owns the 2nd-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, surrendering 5.37 yards-per-carry.

Cons

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.8% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 4th-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 34.5% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Dalvin Cook has rushed for quite a few less yards per game (76.0) this year than he did last year (89.0).
The Minnesota Vikings have gone up against a stacked the box on 20.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
75
Rushing Yards