Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Nick ChubbRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Bengals vs. Browns
Right now, Nick Chubb’s rushing yards prop is set at 80.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 80.5 (-115) after it opened @ 74.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 6th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 47.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Cleveland Browns have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 62.1 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Nick Chubb to accrue 16.5 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 89th percentile among RBs.
- Nick Chubb has garnered 62.1% of his team’s carries this year, putting him in the 95th percentile among RBs.
- Nick Chubb has averaged 92.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest marks in the NFL among RBs (99th percentile).
Cons
- The Browns are an enormous 7.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Browns to run the 7th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Cincinnati Bengals defense has produced the 10th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, surrendering just 4.38 yards-per-carry.
- The Cincinnati Bengals safeties project as the 10th-best unit in the NFL this year with their run defense.
- The Cleveland Browns have been faced with a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
77
Rushing Yards
77
Rushing Yards
