Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Joe BurrowPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Bengals vs. Browns
Right now, Joe Burrow’s passing yards prop is set at 273.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 273.5 (-110) after it opened @ 278.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 67.2% pass rate.
- The Cincinnati Bengals have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 60.0 plays per game.
- Joe Burrow has attempted 37.6 passes per game this year, checking in at the 78th percentile among quarterbacks.
- Joe Burrow has been among the top passers in the league this year, averaging an impressive 290.0 yards per game while ranking in the 97th percentile.
- Joe Burrow has been among the most on-target passers in the league this year with a stellar 70.0% Completion%, checking in at the 97th percentile.
Cons
- The Bengals are a 4.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Bengals to run the 9th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 32.9 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in the NFL.
- The Cleveland Browns defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.99 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-least in the NFL.
- The Cincinnati Bengals O-line has allowed their QB just 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
288
Passing Yards
288
Passing Yards
