Week 14 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Devin Singletary from EV Insight

Devin SingletaryRushing Yards

Right now, Devin Singletary’s rushing yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (+100/-137).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 40.5 (-137) after it opened @ 44.5 (-115).

Pros

The Bills are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the 8th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 59.8 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Devin Singletary has averaged 53.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest marks in football among RBs (76th percentile).

Cons

The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.9% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-least run-centric team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 29.4% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Devin Singletary to be much less involved in his offense’s rushing attack this week (37.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (53.9% in games he has played).
The Buffalo Bills O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in football this year at blocking for rushers.
The New York Jets defense owns the 5th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, yielding just 4.21 yards-per-carry.

Projection

THE BLITZ
47
Rushing Yards