Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyler ConklinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Bills vs. Jets
Right now, Tyler Conklin’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 25.5 (-130) after it opened @ 25.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets offense as the 6th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 26.49 seconds per play.
- THE BLITZ projects Tyler Conklin to total 4.5 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 79th percentile among TEs.
- Tyler Conklin has put up far more air yards this year (41.0 per game) than he did last year (29.0 per game).
- Tyler Conklin has been among the top tight ends in the pass game this year, averaging a terrific 33.0 yards per game while checking in at the 81st percentile.
Cons
- The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- The Buffalo Bills defense has surrendered the 5th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 38.0) versus tight ends this year.
- The Buffalo Bills pass defense has surrendered the 10th-lowest Completion% in football (69.1%) versus tight ends this year (69.1%).
- The Buffalo Bills pass defense has displayed strong efficiency versus TEs this year, giving up 5.64 yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-least in football.
- The Buffalo Bills linebackers profile as the 4th-best LB corps in football this year in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
25
Receiving Yards
25
Receiving Yards
