Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mike WhitePassing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Bills vs. Jets
Right now, Mike White’s passing yards prop is set at 245.5 yards (+105/-130).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 245.5 (-130) after it opened @ 247.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets offense as the 6th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 26.49 seconds per play.
- Mike White has attempted 36.7 throws per game since the start of last season, checking in at the 87th percentile among quarterbacks.
- Mike White has been among the top quarterbacks in football since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 275.0 yards per game while grading out in the 94th percentile.
- The New York Jets offensive line has allowed their QB 2.69 seconds before the pass (5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all passing game stats across the board.
Cons
- The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- Mike White’s passing accuracy has declined this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 67.7% to 64.1%.
- The Buffalo Bills pass defense has shown strong efficiency this year, conceding 7.26 yards-per-target: the 9th-least in football.
- The Buffalo Bills defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.59 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in the league.
- The Buffalo Bills linebackers profile as the 4th-best LB corps in football this year in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
223
Passing Yards
223
Passing Yards
