Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Isiah PachecoRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Broncos vs. Chiefs
Right now, Isiah Pacheco’s rushing yards prop is set at 66.5 yards (-113/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 66.5 (-115) after it opened @ 67.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Chiefs are a giant 8.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 6th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 59.8 plays per game.
- Isiah Pacheco’s running efficiency (4.94 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football this year (82nd percentile among RBs).
- The Denver Broncos have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 5th-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 35.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a measly 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the league). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which usually means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
64
Rushing Yards
64
Rushing Yards
