Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Aaron JonesRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Bears vs. Packers
Right now, Aaron Jones’s rushing yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 58.5 (-110) after it opened @ 57.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Packers are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 9th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 44.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
- Aaron Jones has run for substantially more yards per game (65.0) this year than he did last year (50.0).
- Opposing teams have rushed for the 6th-most yards in football (146 per game) vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 59.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.
Projection
THE BLITZ
63
Rushing Yards
63
Rushing Yards
