Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Tony PollardRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Cowboys vs. Colts
Right now, Tony Pollard’s rushing yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 58.5 (-115) after it opened @ 69.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Cowboys are an enormous 10.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 8th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 44.7% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run on the slate this week at 140.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Tony Pollard has been a more integral piece of his team’s run game this year (44.4% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (33.9%).
- Tony Pollard has run for a lot more yards per game (63.0) this year than he did last year (43.0).
Cons
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- The Indianapolis Colts defense has produced the 9th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, allowing just 4.28 yards-per-carry.
- The Indianapolis Colts defensive tackles rank as the 4th-best group of DTs in football this year when it comes to run defense.
Projection
THE BLITZ
60
Rushing Yards
60
Rushing Yards
