Week 13 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Tony Pollard from EV Insight

Tony PollardRushing Yards

Right now, Tony Pollard’s rushing yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 58.5 (-115) after it opened @ 69.5 (-114).

Pros

The Cowboys are an enormous 10.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 8th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 44.7% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run on the slate this week at 140.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Tony Pollard has been a more integral piece of his team’s run game this year (44.4% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (33.9%).
Tony Pollard has run for a lot more yards per game (63.0) this year than he did last year (43.0).

Cons

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Indianapolis Colts defense has produced the 9th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, allowing just 4.28 yards-per-carry.
The Indianapolis Colts defensive tackles rank as the 4th-best group of DTs in football this year when it comes to run defense.

Projection

THE BLITZ
60
Rushing Yards