Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
The NFL has a nearly full 12-game main slate of games Sunday, with only two teams on bye this week. One of the most anticipated of those 12 games is the matchup between Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs and Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals. This game has the highest total of the week at 52.5. If you are going to target anytime touchdown scorers or number of touchdown passes thrown, this game stands out as the one most likely to have them. Both teams have some injury issues they are dealing with.
I am going to steer clear of some of those hazy situations and instead take the easy money that comes with targeting things we know are highly likely to happen.
DraftKings NFL Week 13 Same Game Parlay
Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown
Patrick Mahomes 2+ Touchdown Passes
Joe Burrow Over 249.5 Passing Yards
+140, DraftKings Sportsbook
If you are looking for a big-money payout, this is not the same game parlay for you, but I wanted to discuss why something like this is better than it seems. DraftKings has two separate profit boosts on three-leg same game parlays this week for 20%. BetMGM, Caesars and FanDuel all have similar offers. You can get almost $200 down on this with profit boosts that raise the potential payout up to just shy of +200, meaning this simple same game parlay could turn $200 into almost $600 for betting on three things that are likely to happen in a projected high-scoring game. Make sure to take advantage of those bonus offers as they are one of the best ways to make yourself a profitable sports bettor and get a little extra spending cash for present buying this holiday season. If you typically bet is more than $200, you can always take this at +140 for the remaining amount and end up north of a +150 payout when blended with boosted bets.
Travis Kelce has found the end zone in each of the last three games. He has scored in seven of 11 games the Chiefs have played this season. Mecole Hardman is out, Kadarius Toney is not 100% and JuJu Smith-Schuster was eased back last week in after missing time with a concussion. The Chiefs did not need to go high volume in that game to beat the Rams, but the passing game should be more involved this week in a matchup against the Bengals.
Patrick Mahomes has topped 300 yards passing in six straight games, but the yardage props are elevated because of that. I prefer to go to Mahomes for multiple touchdown passes in this one. Twice in the last four weeks he has failed to reach this mark, but last week they were always in control of that game against the Rams and leaned on the run game. The other time was a matchup with the Titans in a 20-17 game where he threw all over them, but the Chiefs scored just two touchdowns and only one of those was through the air. This game has a massive 52.5-point total, so we should see more than two touchdowns. If so, the chances of Mahomes throwing for 2 or more are great. In every game the Chiefs scored three or more touchdowns, Mahomes passed for at least 2 of them. They project for almost 28 points here, so 3-plus touchdowns is likely. He’s even had games where they only scored two touchdowns as a team, and both were through the air. The Buffalo game is one that stands out there. Mahomes has multiple touchdown passes in eight of 11 games and the price is a little lower than it has been due to him not going over in two of the last four weeks. I would say both of those situations are more the exception than the norm.
Joe Burrow has a similar pattern to Patrick Mahomes with his yardage numbers. When the Bengals score 20 or more points, Burrow has thrown for over 250 yards in all but one of those games. That game was the big Joe Mixon blow up game where he scored five touchdowns the week before their bye. Burrow has thrown for 625 yards since that bye in two games, topping 270 in both of them. He’s averaging 287 yards for the season and playing a team that allows an average of 36 pass attempts against them per game. The only team that has kept Burrow under 270 yards when he attempts 36 or more passes is the Dallas Cowboys. The Chiefs do not generate the same type of pressure on a QB the Cowboys can, so I am expecting Burrow to have another big statistical day here.
What is a Same Game Parlay?
A same game parlay is a bet that links multiple outcomes together that all come from the same event. Every NFL game has hundreds of different bet types. Sports books will offer bets on the spread, on the total, on who will score a touchdown, how many yards certain players will have, and many more events. A bettor has the ability to make a straight bet on each of these markets individually. If a bettor decides he wants to get a bigger payout by linking multiple outcomes together, that is what a same game parlay is for.
Why Bet Same Game Parlays
Same-game parlays offer a unique opportunity. Most parlays are -EV because you are trying to build up odds through uncorrelated events. When you put three teams in a parlay and it pays out at +595, you are getting the implied probability of 14.39%. There is not much value there — if you hit bets at a 52% clip, a three-team parlay at -110 odds has the implied probability of 14%. You are making a bad bet as the implied probability of you hitting the bet is less than the odds you are receiving.
Same-game parlays are different — you get an opportunity to add multiple events that increase your odds, and they are correlated. Same-game parlays are very similar to DFS game theory — you are telling yourself a story for how the game plays out and when you are right you win in a big way. Think Tom Brady has a huge game and throws for multiple touchdowns and over 300 yards? Well, he is going to have to take some receivers with him. Now the Buccaneers are putting pressure on the other team and they will have to respond by airing it out. Picking a receiver on the other team to run it back can give you serious odds and a big pay out. The reason to bet on the same-game parlays is because, when you are right, it pays off big. But it is very important when building them you aren’t trying to tell two different stories.
