Today’s Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
Travis EtienneRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Lions vs. Jaguars
Right now, Travis Etienne’s rushing yards prop is set at 64.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 64.5 (-110) after it opened @ 70.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Travis Etienne to garner 16.5 carries in this contest, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile among RBs.
- THE BLITZ projects Travis Etienne to be much more involved in his offense’s rushing attack this week (65.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (48.6% in games he has played).
- Travis Etienne has averaged 66.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest marks in the league among running backs (91st percentile).
- The Detroit Lions defense owns the 2nd-worst efficiency against opposing run games this year, giving up 5.43 yards-per-carry.
Cons
- The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line grades out as the worst in football this year in run blocking.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have used motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (8th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.
Projection
THE BLITZ
82
Rushing Yards
82
Rushing Yards
