Week 13 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Jonathan Taylor from EV Insight

Jonathan TaylorRushing Yards

Right now, Jonathan Taylor’s rushing yards prop is set at 76.5 yards (-110/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 76.5 (-110) after it opened @ 75.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run among all games this week at 140.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have called the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 60.2 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Jonathan Taylor to total 19.9 rush attempts in this game, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
Jonathan Taylor has received 80.9% of his offense’s carries this year, ranking in the 98th percentile among RBs.
The Dallas Cowboys defensive tackles project as the 5th-worst DT corps in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.

Cons

The Colts are an enormous 10.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 6th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 34.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Indianapolis Colts O-line grades out as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year at blocking for the run game.
Jonathan Taylor has run for quite a few less yards per game (88.0) this season than he did last season (116.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
95
Rushing Yards