NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
Chris GodwinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Buccaneers vs. Saints
Right now, Chris Godwin’s receiving yards prop is set at 68.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 68.5 (-110) after it opened @ 67.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 65.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 62.9 plays per game.
- The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Chris Godwin to garner 9.0 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 92nd percentile among WRs.
Cons
- The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- Opposing teams have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game against the New Orleans Saints defense this year: least in football.
- Chris Godwin has compiled significantly fewer air yards this season (64.0 per game) than he did last season (69.0 per game).
- Chris Godwin has compiled substantially fewer receiving yards per game (69.0) this season than he did last season (87.0).
- Chris Godwin’s ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 79.6% to 73.3%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
76
Receiving Yards
76
Receiving Yards
