Week 13 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Logan Thomas from EV Insight

Logan ThomasReceiving Yards

Right now, Logan Thomas’s receiving yards prop is set at 23.5 yards (+100/-125).

The public has bet the OVER up to 23.5 (+100) after it opened @ 22.5 (-115).

Pros

The Washington Commanders will be rolling with backup QB Taylor Heinicke in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Washington Commanders have run the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 62.1 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Logan Thomas to accrue 3.8 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 76th percentile among TEs.
Logan Thomas has compiled a whopping 28.0 air yards per game this year: 82nd percentile among TEs.
The New York Giants defense has allowed the 10th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (53.0) vs. TEs this year.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 49.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game against the New York Giants defense this year: 8th-least in the NFL.
Logan Thomas has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (64.4% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (82.5%).
Logan Thomas’s receiving reliability have worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 72.2% to 62.3%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
23
Receiving Yards