WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Logan ThomasReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Giants vs. Commanders
Right now, Logan Thomas’s receiving yards prop is set at 23.5 yards (+100/-125).
The public has bet the OVER up to 23.5 (+100) after it opened @ 22.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Washington Commanders will be rolling with backup QB Taylor Heinicke in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Washington Commanders have run the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 62.1 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Logan Thomas to accrue 3.8 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 76th percentile among TEs.
- Logan Thomas has compiled a whopping 28.0 air yards per game this year: 82nd percentile among TEs.
- The New York Giants defense has allowed the 10th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (53.0) vs. TEs this year.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 49.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game against the New York Giants defense this year: 8th-least in the NFL.
- Logan Thomas has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (64.4% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (82.5%).
- Logan Thomas’s receiving reliability have worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 72.2% to 62.3%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
23
Receiving Yards
23
Receiving Yards
