MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
We enter another day of third-round Group matches.
Let’s find out what bets we’re making Friday morning.
Ghana vs. Uruguay
Ghana vs. Uruguay is a competitive rematch of an all-time classic quarterfinals match from 2010 that saw one of the most controversial plays in World Cup history. Luis Suarez’s intentional handball on the goal line on the last play of the match saw him get sent off, forcing Asamoah Gyan to take a PK and ultimately miss. Uruguay would go on to win on PKs, making Suarez’s gamble worth it. Ghana would have been the first African team to reach the semifinals, and they and their supporters won’t be forgiving Suarez anytime soon for his play.
The Black Stars have been one of the most entertaining teams at the tournament, with both games of theirs ending 3-2. With their win last Tuesday against South Korea, they now control their own qualification destiny, with a draw here very likely to have them advance, unless South Korea can beat Portugal by two or more. Uruguay are the only team left to have not scored in this World Cup, really quite pathetic considering their attacking talent. Uruguay have qualified for every knockout stage since 2002. Nothing would please Ghana more than to send Suarez and co. packing, exacting revenge for 2010.
I’ll again like to preface that exact scores in the third round of group games are a lot more difficult due to the circumstances it takes for a lot of these teams to advance. I’ll personally be playing these and recording them, but just be weary.
Most Likely Scores
(risking 0.2x, all odds provided by DraftKings)
- Ghana 1-1 Uruguay +650
- Ghana 1-2 Uruguay +800
- Ghana 2-1 Uruguay +1500
- Ghana 0-2 Uruguay +700
South Korea vs. Portugal
South Korea is coming off a tough loss to Ghana that saw them claw back from down 2-0 before eventually losing 3-2. South Korea will be without their (ironically, Portuguese) manager Paulo Bento as he got a red card at the end of the Ghana match yelling at the referee. To add another twist to this matchup, the last time Portugal lost the third game of a World Cup group stage was to South Korea back in 2002. That eliminated Portugal back then, but thankfully that won’t be a worry come kickoff on Friday.
This already-qualified Portugal team will most likely be resting some key players before the knockout round. Portugal only needs a draw to win the group, and I anticipate them to try to bunker down here and force the South Koreans to break them down, rather than make it a track meet. I would be surprised if we see Ronaldo play tomorrow, so there’s really no reason to roll him out there with nothing to play for and the knockout round in just three days. Getting to rest over these next three days for Portugal’s key men will definitely be a factor in the later rounds.
Most Likely Scores
- South Korea 1-1 Portugal (+650)
- South Korea 0-0 Portugal (+1300)
- South Korea 0-1 Portugal (+650)
- South Korea 1-0 Portugal (+1200)
Cameroon vs. Brazil
Cameroon had a valiant comeback to draw Serbia 3-3 on Tuesday, roaring back from a 3-1 deficit seemingly out of nowhere. They will need probably four or five more miracles to qualify after Friday, however. They will have to beat Brazil, something that no African nation has done in almost 20 years (ironically enough, by Cameroon). That remains the only time ever that Brazil has lost to an African nation in a competitive match. They’ll likely need to beat Brazil by two, and have Serbia beat Switzerland by exactly one. Good luck out there Indomitable Lions, you’re gonna need it!
Brazil will get to afford themselves some very valuable rest for their starters, and as luck would have it, Brazil’s B team would likely be every other nation’s A team. They are so damn stacked at every position, there will likely be a minimal difference between the team we saw in the first two games and the team we see on Friday. Tuesday did see them struggle a bit until Casemiro’s late winner sprung them into the knockout stage, but a draw or more here would see Brazil win their 11th straight group at the World Cup, a simply unfathomable achievement. Brazil’s defense has been a fortress thus far, barely allowing any possession to their opponent, and there’s virtually no reason we should see that change against Cameroon.
Most Likely Scores
- Cameroon 0-2 Brazil (+600)
- Cameroon 0-1 Brazil (+650)
- Cameroon 0-3 Brazil (+850)
- Cameroon 1-1 Brazil (+850)
Serbia vs. Switzerland
The Serbian performances thus far can only be described as a disappointment, as many people had them pegged as a potential dark-horse candidate out of this group. Serbia produced an entertaining game, albeit because of dreadful defending, in what Serbian manager Dragan Stojkovic (I had to find an excuse to get that name in there, simply an incredible name) called “inexcusable” and “incomprehensible”. Now they will have to win against Switzerland to advance to their first knockout stage ever.
The Swiss showed incredible mettle against tournament favorites Brazil, with GK Yann Sommer putting in an outstanding performance. The Red Crosses very likely only need a draw to advance to their third straight knockout round, with Cameroon having to beat Brazil, and I expect to see another grind-it-out game here. If the Swiss get an early goal, we could see them park the bus and force the Serbs to try to break them down for the remainder.
Most Likely Scores
- Serbia 1-1 Switzerland (+550)
- Serbia 1-0 Switzerland (+750)
- Serbia 0-1 Switzerland (+850)
- Serbia 1-2 Switzerland (+1000)
Bets
- Uruguay/Ghana Over 2.5 +100 1x
- Cameroon Team Total Under 0.5 -105 1x
- Serbia/Switzerland Draw +245 .5x
