Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Brock WrightReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Lions vs. Jaguars
Right now, Brock Wright’s receiving yards prop is set at 12.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Lions to run the 6th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has displayed poor efficiency against tight ends this year, surrendering 8.87 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-most in the NFL.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has struggled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 6.27 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-most in the league.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars safeties rank as the 8th-worst safety corps in football this year in covering receivers.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 8th-least pass-oriented team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 58.3% pass rate.
- The Detroit Lions O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
- The Detroit Lions offensive line has afforded their quarterback a mere 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.
- The Detroit Lions have utilized play action on a measly 22.0% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (6th-least in football), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.
Projection
THE BLITZ
21
Receiving Yards
21
Receiving Yards
