Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyler ConklinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Jets vs. Bears
Right now, Tyler Conklin’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 25.5 (-115) after it opened @ 27.5 (-115).
Pros
- The New York Jets will be starting backup quarterback Mike White in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- THE BLITZ projects Tyler Conklin to total 4.5 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 85th percentile among tight ends.
- Tyler Conklin has posted far more air yards this season (42.0 per game) than he did last season (29.0 per game).
- Tyler Conklin’s 37.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 31.7.
- Tyler Conklin has been among the best pass-catching tight ends this year, averaging an impressive 34.0 yards per game while grading out in the 81st percentile.
Cons
- The Jets are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 5th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 51.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 26.3 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in football.
- The New York Jets offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
26
Receiving Yards
26
Receiving Yards
