WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Greg DulcichReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Panthers vs. Broncos
Right now, Greg Dulcich’s receiving yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 35.5 (-110) after it opened @ 38.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.04 seconds per play.
- The Carolina Panthers pass defense has given up the 8th-highest Completion% in football (76.3%) vs. TEs this year (76.3%).
- The Carolina Panthers safeties rank as the 5th-worst group of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.
- The Denver Broncos offensive line has given their QB 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Cons
- The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- The Carolina Panthers defense has surrendered the 5th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 34.0) to tight ends this year.
- The Carolina Panthers pass defense has performed very well when opposing TEs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.40 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-least in football.
- The Carolina Panthers defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the fastest in football since the start of last season.
- The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a measly 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in football). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.
Projection
THE BLITZ
40
Receiving Yards
40
Receiving Yards
