Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Michael PittmanReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Colts vs. Steelers
Right now, Michael Pittman’s receiving yards prop is set at 66.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 66.5 (-115) after it opened @ 65.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Indianapolis Colts have run the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 60.7 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Michael Pittman has run a route on 98.0% of his team’s passing plays this year, ranking him in the 99th percentile among wideouts.
- Michael Pittman has been among the leading wide receivers in the game this year, averaging a terrific 71.0 yards per game while grading out in the 90th percentile.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has allowed the most receiving yards per game in the NFL (170.0) to wide receivers this year.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 60.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Michael Pittman has accrued significantly fewer air yards this season (62.0 per game) than he did last season (75.0 per game).
- The Indianapolis Colts offensive line profiles as the worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has yielded the 6th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.1%) to wide receivers this year (62.1%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
77
Receiving Yards
77
Receiving Yards
