Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Pat Freiermuth from EV Insight

Pat FreiermuthReceiving Yards

Right now, Pat Freiermuth’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-125/-105).

The public has bet the OVER up to 45.5 (-125) after it opened @ 43.5 (-115).

Pros

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 7th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 61.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Pat Freiermuth to garner 8.1 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 97th percentile among tight ends.
Pat Freiermuth has posted significantly more air yards this year (62.0 per game) than he did last year (28.0 per game).
Pat Freiermuth’s 45.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 26.8.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 3rd-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 61.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 5th-least total plays among all teams this week with 66.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: least in football.
Pat Freiermuth’s sure-handedness have diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 80.0% to 69.0%.
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line has allowed their QB a mere 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing game stats across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
62
Receiving Yards