Week 12 Player Props: Passing Yards for Matt Ryan from EV Insight

Matt RyanPassing Yards

Right now, Matt Ryan’s passing yards prop is set at 231.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 231.5 (-110) after it opened @ 233.5 (-115).

Pros

The Indianapolis Colts have run the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 60.7 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Matt Ryan has passed for many more yards per game (275.0) this year than he did last year (235.0).
Matt Ryan has been among the most on-target QBs in the NFL this year with an impressive 67.9% Completion%, checking in at the 85th percentile.
Opposing teams have passed for the most yards in the NFL (255.0 per game) against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 60.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Matt Ryan to attempt 36.6 passes in this game, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line profiles as the worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 6th-lowest level in football against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year (66.3%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
276
Passing Yards