Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Matt RyanPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Colts vs. Steelers
Right now, Matt Ryan’s passing yards prop is set at 231.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 231.5 (-110) after it opened @ 233.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Indianapolis Colts have run the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 60.7 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Matt Ryan has passed for many more yards per game (275.0) this year than he did last year (235.0).
- Matt Ryan has been among the most on-target QBs in the NFL this year with an impressive 67.9% Completion%, checking in at the 85th percentile.
- Opposing teams have passed for the most yards in the NFL (255.0 per game) against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 60.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Matt Ryan to attempt 36.6 passes in this game, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.
- The Indianapolis Colts offensive line profiles as the worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
- Opposing teams have completed passes at the 6th-lowest level in football against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year (66.3%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
276
Passing Yards
276
Passing Yards
