Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyreek Hill from EV Insight

Tyreek HillReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 92.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 92.5 (-115) after it opened @ 97.5 (-114).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to garner 10.9 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 97th percentile among WRs.
Tyreek Hill has notched significantly more air yards this season (137.0 per game) than he did last season (104.0 per game).
Tyreek Hill’s 78.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 66.1.
Tyreek Hill has compiled quite a few more receiving yards per game (105.0) this year than he did last year (66.0).
Tyreek Hill’s possession skills have gotten better this season, with his Completion% increasing from 72.7% to 76.6%.

Cons

The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 10th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 56.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 55.6 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.1 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense this year: 5th-least in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
102
Receiving Yards