Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dameon PierceRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Dolphins vs. Texans
Right now, Dameon Pierce’s rushing yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (+108/-148).
The public has bet the OVER up to 70.5 (+108) after it opened @ 69.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects Dameon Pierce to earn 19.3 carries in this contest, on average, ranking in the 95th percentile among running backs.
- Dameon Pierce has garnered 83.9% of his team’s carries this year, placing him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
- Dameon Pierce has picked up 77.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the biggest marks in football among RBs (95th percentile).
- Dameon Pierce has been among the best running backs in the NFL at grinding out extra rushing yardage, averaging a stellar 3.45 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 78th percentile.
- The Miami Dolphins defensive tackles grade out as the 3rd-worst group of DTs in football this year in regard to run defense.
Cons
- The Houston Texans will be forced to use backup quarterback Kyle Allen this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.7% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The Texans are a 3-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 8th-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 36.9% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box against opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
90
Rushing Yards
90
Rushing Yards
