Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Christian Kirk from EV Insight

Christian KirkReceiving Yards

Right now, Christian Kirk’s receiving yards prop is set at 61.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 61.5 (-110) after it opened @ 62.5 (-110).

Pros

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.0% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Jaguars are a heavy 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 5th-most in football.
Christian Kirk has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (94.4% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (81.8%).
THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to notch 7.9 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 87th percentile among wide receivers.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Christian Kirk’s sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 74.9% to 68.9%.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties project as the 5th-best safety corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
64
Receiving Yards