Week 12 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Travis Etienne from EV Insight

Travis EtienneRushing Yards

Right now, Travis Etienne’s rushing yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the OVER up to 70.5 (-110) after it opened @ 65.5 (-115).

Pros

The weather report calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Travis Etienne to notch 17.7 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 87th percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects Travis Etienne to be much more involved in his offense’s running game this week (71.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (51.7% in games he has played).
Travis Etienne has averaged 72.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest figures in football among running backs (92nd percentile).
Travis Etienne’s ground effectiveness (5.49 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (90th percentile among running backs).

Cons

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.0% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Jaguars are a heavy 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year in run blocking.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 3rd-least yards in the league (just 86 per game) versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
89
Rushing Yards