Week 12 Player Props: Passing Yards for Trevor Lawrence from EV Insight

Trevor LawrencePassing Yards

Right now, Trevor Lawrence’s passing yards prop is set at 225.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 225.5 (-110) after it opened @ 236.5 (-115).

Pros

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.0% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Jaguars are a heavy 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 5th-most in football.
The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line ranks as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
Trevor Lawrence has thrown for many more yards per game (240.0) this year than he did last year (213.0).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties project as the 5th-best safety corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
222
Passing Yards