Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Lamar JacksonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Jaguars vs. Ravens
Right now, Lamar Jackson’s passing yards prop is set at 206.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 206.5 (-110) after it opened @ 195.5 (-114).
Pros
- Opposing teams have averaged 36.4 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.
- The Baltimore Ravens offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
- Opposing teams have passed for the 5th-most yards in the NFL (255.0 per game) versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers rank as the 9th-worst unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box vs. opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Ravens are a huge 13-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 8th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 53.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- Lamar Jackson has thrown for a lot fewer yards per game (208.0) this year than he did last year (238.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
230
Passing Yards
230
Passing Yards
