Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Alvin KamaraRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
49ers vs. Saints
Right now, Alvin Kamara’s rushing yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 47.5 (-110) after it opened @ 49.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 9th-most run-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 41.6% run rate.
- Alvin Kamara has been given 59.5% of his team’s rush attempts this year, putting him in the 92nd percentile among running backs.
Cons
- The Saints are a heavy 8.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 9th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The New Orleans Saints have run the 10th-least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 56.5 plays per game.
- Alvin Kamara has run for significantly fewer yards per game (55.0) this season than he did last season (67.0).
- The San Francisco 49ers defense has had the best efficiency against opposing running games this year, giving up just 3.49 yards-per-carry.
Projection
THE BLITZ
51
Rushing Yards
51
Rushing Yards
