Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Geno SmithPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Seahawks vs. Raiders
Right now, Geno Smith’s passing yards prop is set at 259.5 yards (-101/-135).
The public has bet the OVER up to 259.5 (-101) after it opened @ 251.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 9th-most pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.0% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks offense as the 10th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 27.52 seconds per snap.
- The Seattle Seahawks offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
- Geno Smith has been among the leading QBs in the league this year, averaging a terrific 247.0 yards per game while ranking in the 78th percentile.
- Opposing teams have passed for the 8th-most yards in football (251.0 per game) versus the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year.
Cons
- The Seahawks are a 4-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
- The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Seattle Seahawks have elected to go for it on 4th down just 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.
- The Seattle Seahawks have used motion in their offense on 28.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (5th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.
Projection
THE BLITZ
271
Passing Yards
271
Passing Yards
