Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Josh JacobsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Seahawks vs. Raiders
Right now, Josh Jacobs’s rushing yards prop is set at 77.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 77.5 (-110) after it opened @ 81.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to garner 19.9 carries in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 96th percentile among RBs.
- Josh Jacobs has been a more integral piece of his team’s rushing attack this season (87.4% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (67.7%).
- The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line ranks as the 3rd-best in football this year at blocking for rushers.
- Josh Jacobs has rushed for quite a few more yards per game (93.0) this year than he did last year (56.0).
- Opposing offenses have run for the 5th-most yards in the league (143 per game) versus the Seattle Seahawks defense this year.
Cons
- The Raiders are a 4-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 10th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 37.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the 11th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Seattle Seahawks defensive tackles rank as the 6th-best unit in the league this year when it comes to run defense.
- The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
92
Rushing Yards
92
Rushing Yards
