Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Davante AdamsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Seahawks vs. Raiders
Right now, Davante Adams’s receiving yards prop is set at 87.5 yards (-104/-131).
The public has bet the OVER up to 87.5 (-104) after it opened @ 85.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Raiders are a 4-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 10th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 62.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Davante Adams to notch 11.9 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 100th percentile among wide receivers.
- Davante Adams has been a key part of his team’s offense, garnering a Target Share of 29.1% this year, which places him in the 97th percentile among wide receivers.
- Davante Adams has totaled quite a few more air yards this year (119.0 per game) than he did last year (102.0 per game).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the 11th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Davante Adams’s possession skills have declined this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 75.3% to 60.8%.
- Davante Adams’s pass-game effectiveness has worsened this season, compiling a measly 8.71 yards-per-target vs a 9.79 figure last season.
- The Seattle Seahawks defense has surrendered the 8th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 129.0) to WRs this year.
- The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has displayed good efficiency against wide receivers this year, surrendering 7.31 yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
92
Receiving Yards
92
Receiving Yards
