Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Allen LazardReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Eagles vs. Packers
Right now, Allen Lazard’s receiving yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-105/-130).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 46.5 (-130) after it opened @ 48.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Packers are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects Allen Lazard to total 7.9 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 87th percentile among wide receivers.
- Allen Lazard has posted quite a few more air yards this season (95.0 per game) than he did last season (44.0 per game).
- Allen Lazard’s 57.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 28.8.
- The Green Bay Packers O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all pass game stats across the board.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers offense to be the 3rd-slowest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 30.07 seconds per play.
- The weather forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- Allen Lazard’s possession skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 69.9% to 61.4%.
- The Philadelphia Eagles defense has allowed the 4th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 122.0) to wide receivers this year.
- The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has surrendered the lowest Completion% in the NFL (57.8%) vs. wide receivers this year (57.8%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
56
Receiving Yards
56
Receiving Yards
