Week 12 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Aaron Jones from EV Insight

Aaron JonesRushing Yards

Right now, Aaron Jones’s rushing yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 54.5 (-115) after it opened @ 59.5 (-115).

Pros

The weather forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Jones to total 13.4 carries in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile among RBs.
Aaron Jones has been given 53.4% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, placing him in the 85th percentile among RBs.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line profiles as the 4th-best in football this year at opening holes for rushers.
Aaron Jones has rushed for a lot more yards per game (66.0) this year than he did last year (50.0).

Cons

The Packers are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers offense to be the 3rd-slowest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 30.07 seconds per play.
The Philadelphia Eagles defensive ends rank as the best DE corps in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.

Projection

THE BLITZ
60
Rushing Yards