Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Amari CooperReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Browns vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Amari Cooper’s receiving yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 52.5 (-110) after it opened @ 55.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Browns are a heavy 7.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Browns to run the most offensive plays among all teams this week with 68.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Cleveland Browns have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 62.1 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 35.6 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
- THE BLITZ projects Amari Cooper to accumulate 8.1 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 89th percentile among wide receivers.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 6th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 51.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- Amari Cooper’s receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 68.7% to 65.2%.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (61.2%) to wide receivers this year (61.2%).
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has displayed good efficiency vs. WRs this year, giving up 7.09 yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
55
Receiving Yards
55
Receiving Yards
