Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Chris GodwinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Browns vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Chris Godwin’s receiving yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the OVER up to 60.5 (-105) after it opened @ 57.5 (-120).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 63.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 135.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 2nd-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 63.2 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Chris Godwin to earn 9.0 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 92nd percentile among wide receivers.
- Chris Godwin has been a big part of his team’s pass game, posting a Target Share of 21.6% this year, which puts him in the 79th percentile among WRs.
Cons
- The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
- The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- Opposing teams have averaged 29.3 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in the league.
- Chris Godwin has accrued quite a few less air yards this season (61.0 per game) than he did last season (69.0 per game).
- Chris Godwin has totaled many fewer receiving yards per game (62.0) this year than he did last year (87.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
67
Receiving Yards
67
Receiving Yards
