Week 12 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Nick Chubb from EV Insight

Nick ChubbRushing Yards

Right now, Nick Chubb’s rushing yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 69.5 (-115) after it opened @ 73.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 6th-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 48.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Browns to run the most offensive plays among all teams this week with 68.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Cleveland Browns have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 62.1 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Nick Chubb has generated 93.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest figures in football among RBs (99th percentile).

Cons

The Browns are a heavy 7.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
The Cleveland Browns have gone up against a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
83
Rushing Yards