Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Nick ChubbRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Browns vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Nick Chubb’s rushing yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 69.5 (-115) after it opened @ 73.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 6th-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 48.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Browns to run the most offensive plays among all teams this week with 68.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Cleveland Browns have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 62.1 plays per game.
- The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- Nick Chubb has generated 93.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest figures in football among RBs (99th percentile).
Cons
- The Browns are a heavy 7.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- The Cleveland Browns have gone up against a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
83
Rushing Yards
83
Rushing Yards
