Week 12 Player Props: Passing Yards for Andy Dalton from EV Insight

Andy DaltonPassing Yards

Right now, Andy Dalton’s passing yards prop is set at 214.5 yards (+105/-135).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 214.5 (-135) after it opened @ 216.5 (-115).

Pros

The Saints are a heavy 8.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Andy Dalton has passed for quite a few more yards per game (214.0) this season than he did last season (183.0).
The New Orleans Saints O-line has afforded their quarterback 2.74 seconds before the pass (3rd-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
The New Orleans Saints have been faced with a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 9th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 58.4% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 9th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have run the 10th-least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 56.5 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have passed for the 7th-least yards in the NFL (just 194.0 per game) versus the San Francisco 49ers defense this year.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has displayed strong efficiency this year, giving up 7.27 yards-per-target: the 9th-least in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
231
Passing Yards