Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Terry McLaurinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Commanders vs. Falcons
Right now, Terry McLaurin’s receiving yards prop is set at 61.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet the OVER up to 61.5 (+100) after it opened @ 60.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Washington Commanders will be starting backup QB Taylor Heinicke in this week’s contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Washington Commanders have called the 3rd-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 62.8 plays per game.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 35.7 pass attempts per game against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
- THE BLITZ projects Terry McLaurin to accumulate 7.6 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among WRs.
- Terry McLaurin has been among the leading wide receivers in the game this year, averaging a terrific 68.0 yards per game while grading out in the 88th percentile.
Cons
- The Commanders are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 4th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 49.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-least plays run among all games this week at 124.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Terry McLaurin has compiled significantly fewer air yards this year (94.0 per game) than he did last year (103.0 per game).
- The Washington Commanders offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
61
Receiving Yards
61
Receiving Yards
