Week 11 Player Props: Passing Yards for Josh Allen from EV Insight

Josh AllenPassing Yards

Right now, Josh Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 283.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 283.5 (-115) after it opened @ 272.5 (-114).

Pros

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 4th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 65.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills offense as the 10th-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.46 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Josh Allen has passed for significantly more yards per game (302.0) this year than he did last year (249.0).

Cons

The Bills are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in football.
The Cleveland Browns defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.42 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 8th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Buffalo Bills have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
320
Passing Yards