Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Devin SingletaryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Bills vs. Browns
Right now, Devin Singletary’s rushing yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 48.5 (-110) after it opened @ 46.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Bills are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills offense as the 10th-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.46 seconds per snap.
- The Cleveland Browns defense has produced the 4th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, yielding 5.31 yards-per-carry.
- The Cleveland Browns defensive tackles project as the worst unit in football this year when it comes to defending the run.
- The Buffalo Bills have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 4th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 34.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Devin Singletary has been a more important option in his team’s offense this year, staying on the field for 71.1% of snaps vs just 57.9% last year.
- Devin Singletary has been among the bottom RBs in the NFL at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging a lowly 2.65 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 24th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
44
Rushing Yards
44
Rushing Yards
