Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Nick ChubbRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Bills vs. Browns
Right now, Nick Chubb’s rushing yards prop is set at 75.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the OVER up to 75.5 (-105) after it opened @ 74.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 4th-most run-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 43.7% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects Nick Chubb to total 15.3 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 83rd percentile among running backs.
- Nick Chubb has garnered 60.5% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.
- The Cleveland Browns offensive line profiles as the best in football this year at opening holes for runners.
- Nick Chubb has run for substantially more yards per game (101.0) this season than he did last season (86.0).
Cons
- The Browns are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns offense to be the 8th-most sluggish paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.10 seconds per snap.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Opposing teams have run for the 6th-least yards in the NFL (just 109 per game) versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year.
- The Cleveland Browns have faced a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
72
Rushing Yards
72
Rushing Yards
